Sunday, 13 April 2014

Memories of the blood



 
A group of Lithuanians attempt to stop a Soviet Red Army tank from crushing a fellow protester during the assault on the Lithuanian Radio and Television station in Vilnius in January 1991.
While one casualty after another today was reported in Slavyansk, Eastern Ukraine, I had a long lecture from a homo vulgaris about why West can’t help Ukraine right now. It was all valid, really, from the transport management which would take weeks for NATO to move sufficient amount of troops and machinery up to even more reasonable question “Do you really want a proper war with Russia in Europe?”  


I nodded, agreed, and tried asking inquisitive questions but it all failed. The said homo vulgaris was certain – there is nothing real beyond so called sanctions Europe can and is willing to do.

Sadly seems that certain homo vulgaris is right. Is there anything EU and US would be willing to do to help Ukraine right now? Weeks had been wasted on pointless verbal diarrhoea but it’s clear now that no Western power is willing to take military action to defend Kiev. 


Sanctions? I’m afraid that Russia is still giggling over the so called sanctions which look impressive only on the front page of a newspaper.


West tried a cunning plan – to scare Russia with diplomatic powers but like all Baldrick’s cunning plans, it didn’t work very well.

Andrei Illarionov, a former top advisor to Vladimir Putin says in this publication that Putin’s willingness to play a longer-term game rests on his “cynical recognition” that he has three years to accomplish his objective before there is a change of leadership in the White House. Obama with his intelligent speeches seems all too weak for Russia.  I respect Illarionov’s point as Russia always had a respect to a brutal force while even the sharpest diplomacy is always considered as a weakness. 


So now only few options are left. Harshening sanctions up to total isolation, pulling the finger out and offer real military help, or – leave Ukraine to fight alone. 


Well, I must admit, I believe in the latest possibility very much. I remember the disappointment and frustration in the Baltic States 25 years ago when people there were hoping for a real support from the West and received exactly one big nothing.  So many leaders of so called big Western countries were raising their fingers and tried to send back the unruly Balts back in the corner like ‘don’t be silly, don’t rock Gorby’s boat!” while Soviet tanks were crushing unarmed civilians on the streets of Vilnius.  


Now, watching the escalation in Ukraine and Western (in)activity, the memories are flashing back with a shocking strength and make me think. IF Russia will reach for the Baltic States, would the response from NATO and EU would be also so weak and evasive? Will NATO be able to increase the speed of moving troops around by then? Is it really possible? Will Eu be ready to face energy shortages in name to protect its smallest partners? 


I fear that Moscow has found the answers to these questions already. 

 If you can't remember events as long as 25 years ago, I would encourage you to watch this documentary (English subtitles) Part I, Part II. Surprisingly, the scenario for Ukraine seems so similar now!

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