A group of Lithuanians attempt to stop a Soviet Red Army tank from crushing a fellow protester during the assault on the Lithuanian Radio and Television station in Vilnius in January 1991. |
While
one casualty after another today was reported in Slavyansk,
Eastern Ukraine, I had a long lecture from a homo vulgaris about why West can’t help Ukraine right now. It was
all valid, really, from the transport management which would take weeks for
NATO to move sufficient amount of troops and machinery up to even more reasonable
question “Do you really want a proper war with Russia in Europe?”
I nodded, agreed, and tried asking
inquisitive questions but it all failed. The said homo vulgaris was certain – there is nothing real beyond so called
sanctions Europe can and is willing to do.
Sadly seems that certain homo vulgaris is right. Is there
anything EU and US would be willing to do to help Ukraine right now? Weeks had
been wasted on pointless verbal diarrhoea but it’s clear now that no Western
power is willing to take military action to defend Kiev.
Sanctions? I’m afraid that Russia is still giggling
over the so called sanctions which look impressive only on the front page of a
newspaper.
West tried a cunning plan – to scare Russia
with diplomatic powers but like all Baldrick’s cunning plans, it didn’t work
very well.
Andrei Illarionov, a former top advisor to
Vladimir Putin says in this publication
that Putin’s willingness to play a longer-term game rests on his “cynical
recognition” that he has three years to accomplish his objective before there
is a change of leadership in the White House. Obama with his intelligent speeches
seems all too weak for Russia. I respect
Illarionov’s point as Russia always had a respect to a brutal force while even
the sharpest diplomacy is always considered as a weakness.
So now only few options are left.
Harshening sanctions up to total isolation, pulling the finger out and offer
real military help, or – leave Ukraine to fight alone.
Well, I must admit, I believe in the latest
possibility very much. I remember the disappointment and frustration in the
Baltic States 25 years ago when people there were hoping for a real support
from the West and received exactly one big nothing. So many leaders of so called big Western
countries were raising their fingers and tried to send back the unruly Balts
back in the corner like ‘don’t be silly, don’t rock Gorby’s boat!” while Soviet tanks
were crushing unarmed civilians on the streets of Vilnius.
Now, watching the escalation in Ukraine and
Western (in)activity, the memories are flashing back with a shocking strength
and make me think. IF Russia will reach for the Baltic States, would the
response from NATO and EU would be also so weak and evasive? Will NATO be able
to increase the speed of moving troops around by then? Is it really possible? Will
Eu be ready to face energy shortages in name to protect its smallest partners?
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