Thursday, 17 April 2014

ARE WE DOOMED?





It feels like we all are doomed already.  We are trapped in the situation when if we do, we are doomed, and if we don’t, we are doomed, too. I really feel for the Ukrainian soldiers yesterday when they approached Kramatorsk and were facing dilemma – to surrender or start firing at civilians who were used by pro-Russian separatists as a live shield.  It was the exact situation we all are facing right now. 


If the Western allies will join to help Ukraine to resist Russia’s attempts, there is a great danger of triggering a military escalation on a much larger scale - well, let’s use the exact word – WAR - right in the middle of Europe.  Just imagine – Russia would need just few nukes to change the whole picture in densely populated Europe forever. 

If the Western allies will decide not to protect Ukraine, Russia without a hesitation will reach for the next bite which, most likely will be the Baltic States (who, unlike Ukraine, are EU and NATO members). In that case Russia will destroy the whole political order which had been established after the WWII in the West, destroying the whole idea of unions like EU and NATO.
Tough decision, isn’t it? 

On a personal note, as one who went through the whole fun of Soviet collapse in the Baltic States twenty five years ago, I’m paralysed with fear right now. Each time when one political analyst or another points that the next Russia’s target, most likely, will be the Baltic States, I shiver. 

There is no way for me “back in the USSR” again. We rushed to join EU and NATO as fast as possible not because we truly wanted to join EU, and even less NATO, but it was our only hope to run away safely from the Russia’s “welcome back” party. We believed that we shall be safe then. It seems now that it was just another naive illusion because right now the whole Western alliance looks so incapable and weak to make any decisions.

Is there any hope at all?

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