CUTE!

This is so damn cute! Just read it!

New order? New challenge?

The first American troops arrived in Poland on Wednesday

Since Geneva agreement it has been few relatively calm days to sit and think about what exactly happened so far.

Nothing much, to be honest. Ukraine only lost Crimea. A big deal?

According to piece of Paul Goble, it is a rather big deal, especially for people in Crimea. Or actually not?At least for the West. British intelligence chiefs have warned Prime Minister David Cameron already not to step in as "it’s not worth starting World War Three over Ukraine." And it all seems exactly like that - nobody wants to step in to offer a helping hand to Ukraine. Because it's just Ukraine.

Maybe Ukraine is really not worth anything, but how about NATO allies? More and more experts points towards Baltic and especially Latvia as possible next target for Russia to excercise it's new war technology, based not on tanks but democracy which actually makes NATO's Article Five, on whose  Latvians rely, useless.

Goble (who's expertise on Russia had been proven by years) is quite categorically about Latvia as the next target. And while few question that NATO would respond to an overt Russian military move into Latvia or any other NATO member country, the Western defense alliance is not designed to counter the kind of subversion that Moscow has already used in Ukraine and that it could deploy in Latvia to undermine that country’s independence and test the alliance as well without using tanks, to cross the border. 
Fun, isn't it? 

ARE WE DOOMED?

It feels like we all are doomed already.  We are trapped in the situation when if we do, we are doomed, and if we don’t, we are doomed, too. I really feel for the Ukrainian soldiers yesterday when they approached Kramatorsk and were facing dilemma – to surrender or start firing at civilians who were used by pro-Russian separatists as a live shield.  It was the exact situation we all are facing right now. 

If the Western allies will join to help Ukraine to resist Russia’s attempts, there is a great danger of triggering a military escalation on a much larger scale - well, let’s use the exact word – WAR - right in the middle of Europe.  Just imagine – Russia would need just few nukes to change the whole picture in densely populated Europe forever. 

If the Western allies will decide not to protect Ukraine, Russia without a hesitation will reach for the next bite which, most likely will be the Baltic States (who, unlike Ukraine, are EU and NATO members). In that case Russia will destroy the whole political order which had been established after the WWII in the West, destroying the whole idea of unions like EU and NATO.

Tough decision, isn’t it? 

On a personal note, as one who went through the whole fun of Soviet collapse in the Baltic States twenty five years ago, I’m paralysed with fear right now. Each time when one political analyst or another points that the next Russia’s target, most likely, will be the Baltic States, I shiver. 

There is no way for me “back in the USSR” again. We rushed to join EU and NATO as fast as possible not because we truly wanted to join EU, and even less NATO, but it was our only hope to run away safely from the Russia’s “welcome back” party. We believed that we shall be safe then. It seems now that it was just another naive illusion because right now the whole Western alliance looks so incapable and weak to make any decisions.

Is there any hope at all?

Sorry, Ukraine!

So, European Union foreign ministers met today in Luxembourg, and agreed “to expand the list of Russian officials targeted by an asset freeze and travel ban”. According to unofficial info, there are only four new names on this list which will be revealed tomorrow. Four names! Only four names were added to the current list!

That’s all? What???

Currently, only 33 Russian officials and lawmakers are on the asset-freeze and travel-ban list. EU, after a long head scratching, will add four more. Do they really believe that such sanctions mean anything to Russia? How naive! Or – which is most likely to be the case – how cynical is this approach pretending to do something without doing anything.

But even such a minute step seemed too much for some EU members. Frans Timmermans, the Dutch foreign minister, said that it was too early to impose more sanctions, but that the EU should be prepared. (Prepared for what exactly?) 

Okay, okay, they also agreed the bloc's leaders COULD meet next week to further ratchet up pressure, and expressed hope that a meeting of foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, the EU and the U.S. on Thursday in Geneva will make real progress in scaling back tensions between Moscow and Kiev. 

What EU hopes for? That Russians will suddenly offer Ukraine an apology and return Crimea? Or that arrival of John Kerry will scare Russia to death?

According to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, ‘it is the position of France, it is the position of Europe, to increase the pressure without making dialogue impossible.’ In other words – to pretend doing something without actually doing anything. 

EU foreign ministers also passed a few proposals – grant up to 1 billion euros in loans to cover Ukraine's critical balance of payments  and also agreed temporarily abolish or reduce customs duties on Ukrainian imports which might save Ukrainian exporters almost 500 million euros a year. Nice proposals, of course, but will it stop Russia? 

Already a month ago German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Moscow of possible economic sanctions if the crisis escalates. Back then it was only Crimea. Now, a month later the situation without a doubt have had escalated into something much more ugly but promised economical sanctions still hadn’t been even discussed yet. 

US also is not so keen on actions. White House spokesman Jay Carney made clear that the United States was not considering lethal aid for Ukraine. "We're not actively considering lethal aid but we are reviewing the kinds of assistance we can provide," Carney said. "We are looking at a variety of ways to demonstrate our strong support for Ukraine including diplomatically and economically." 

Saakasvili few days ago mentioned words, told by Winston Churchill to Hitler's appeasers: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war." 

Few years ago Russia snapped part of Georgia, and the West did nothing. Now Russia snapped Crimea and again – West did nothing. Now unstoppable Russian fingers are reaching for East Ukraine. 

Surely, we cannot expect modern-day politicians, obsessed with polls and midterm elections, to follow Churchill’s position all the time. „But at a minimum they should not want to go down in history as the Neville Chamberlains of the 21st century,” points Saakasvili. 
 
Seems that West has decided. To do nothing. Sorry, Ukraine!

What Luxembourg will bring today?

Weli, it's rather flattering when somebody agrees with you, isn't it?  Seems that my personal worries about EU decissions over recent development in Ukraine aren't so silly and so out-of-the blue. If you read this piece on BBC, it's pretty much what I said yesterday.

Another great read for understanding what's going on there, is this piece, which shows where and what exactly is going on right now in Eastern Ukraine.

EU foreign ministers will convene in Luxembourg today to discuss the crisis in Ukraine, but despite the escalation in the eastern part of Ukraine, ministers are unlikely to opt for more serious sanctions on Russia today. The experts predict that at its best, EU may consider further sanctions against Russian individuals only, which is like flogging an elephant with a daisy.

Memories of the blood

 

A group of Lithuanians attempt to stop a Soviet Red Army tank from crushing a fellow protester during the assault on the Lithuanian Radio and Television station in Vilnius in January 1991.

While one casualty after another today was reported in Slavyansk, Eastern Ukraine, I had a long lecture from a homo vulgaris about why West can’t help Ukraine right now. It was all valid, really, from the transport management which would take weeks for NATO to move sufficient amount of troops and machinery up to even more reasonable question “Do you really want a proper war with Russia in Europe?”  

I nodded, agreed, and tried asking inquisitive questions but it all failed. The said homo vulgaris was certain – there is nothing real beyond so called sanctions Europe can and is willing to do.

Sadly seems that certain homo vulgaris is right. Is there anything EU and US would be willing to do to help Ukraine right now? Weeks had been wasted on pointless verbal diarrhoea but it’s clear now that no Western power is willing to take military action to defend Kiev. 

Sanctions? I’m afraid that Russia is still giggling over the so called sanctions which look impressive only on the front page of a newspaper.

West tried a cunning plan – to scare Russia with diplomatic powers but like all Baldrick’s cunning plans, it didn’t work very well.

Andrei Illarionov, a former top advisor to Vladimir Putin says in this publication that Putin’s willingness to play a longer-term game rests on his “cynical recognition” that he has three years to accomplish his objective before there is a change of leadership in the White House. Obama with his intelligent speeches seems all too weak for Russia.  I respect Illarionov’s point as Russia always had a respect to a brutal force while even the sharpest diplomacy is always considered as a weakness. 

So now only few options are left. Harshening sanctions up to total isolation, pulling the finger out and offer real military help, or – leave Ukraine to fight alone. 

Well, I must admit, I believe in the latest possibility very much. I remember the disappointment and frustration in the Baltic States 25 years ago when people there were hoping for a real support from the West and received exactly one big nothing.  So many leaders of so called big Western countries were raising their fingers and tried to send back the unruly Balts back in the corner like ‘don’t be silly, don’t rock Gorby’s boat!” while Soviet tanks were crushing unarmed civilians on the streets of Vilnius.  

Now, watching the escalation in Ukraine and Western (in)activity, the memories are flashing back with a shocking strength and make me think. IF Russia will reach for the Baltic States, would the response from NATO and EU would be also so weak and evasive? Will NATO be able to increase the speed of moving troops around by then? Is it really possible? Will Eu be ready to face energy shortages in name to protect its smallest partners? 

I fear that Moscow has found the answers to these questions already. 

 If you can't remember events as long as 25 years ago, I would encourage you to watch this documentary (English subtitles) Part I, Part II. Surprisingly, the scenario for Ukraine seems so similar now!

Blood in Slavyansk

 

The eastern city of Slavyansk on April 13, 2014. (Reuters / Maks Levin)

"It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things."(TP)

EU – ECONOMY OR POLITICS?

Lucas Cranach, the Elder

I think it’s time to re-think the whole EU idea in general. EU started as an economical union and it was doing fine but situation in Europe has changed significantly over the past two decades so economical frame actually doesn’t fit very well anymore. So here comes the question – what Europe really wants and what it really needs?

Let’s look at Ukraine as a prime example. The European Union and Ukraine signed the core elements of a political association agreement last month. Well, some substantial parts of the agreement concerning free trade will only be signed after Ukraine will have new president elected in May. So I would say that both sides shoved the political will, leaving economy for later. 

And so did Russia - coinciding with the signing in Brussels, Russia's upper house of parliament unanimously approved a treaty annexing Ukraine's Crimea region. 

Ukraine’s former president Viktor Yanukovich turned his back on signing the EU agreement last November in favour of closer ties with Moscow. That, in turn, started months of street protests in Kiev that eventually led to Yanukovich fleeing the country. Soon afterwards, Russian forces occupied Crimea, which in turn spiralled into outrage and sanctions from US and EU. Now tanks and economy are all mixed up in one ball.  

So why it’s all happening only now? Well, there had been talks that its Ukraine’s own fault, that it had been rather reluctant to join EU in the first place. Is it actually true? 

The fact is that Ukraine's government declared that integration to the EU is the main foreign policy objective exactly twenty years ago - in 1994. Surprisingly little has had happened since then. 

Why?

Let’s blame EU itself in the first place. Swallowing the first three bits of former UdSSR – the little Baltic States - was easy-peasy as all three together had population less than 8 millions back in 1992 and since then it has declined by 20% already. They had rather organised economies, no big political hiccups and all three were very willing to secure themselves away from deadly hugs of Russia. 

But!  Who wants a tidal wave of poor post-soviets from Ukraine wash over the borders?  As a matter of fact, Germany still has its hands full to get both parts of Germany united while UK has had enough with the “Polish plumber” (according to latest census data, Polish are the largest minority in UK now) so nobody was really keen to expand deeper into the post-Soviet space and accepting into EU club another 46 millions from Ukraine....  

The second thing – the poor performance of the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine’s GDP per capita is 3,867 USD (2012) while UK, for example, has ten times more – its GDP per capita is 38,514 USD. Let’s be honest, today Ukraine is still eons away from Maastricht criteria. So even if the political will might become really strong, chances of Ukraine joining EU in nearest future are very dim.

So – what to do? Stick on economy and strongly insist on Maastricht Criteria for every candidate or to make a very serious political decision, dump the criteria and invite all post-soviet countries who have had expressed such a political will?

By the first scenario, everybody in current EU will be rather happy in a short term as poor immigrants will be not littering their streets and burdening social services, healthcare and education systems until... until Russia will decide that it needs to expand a bit more again.

 By second scenario, EU will face rather significant short term economy downfalls as the price for stopping Russian bear lurking around EU doorsteps but it might gain a much more serious political weight in future. 

Would you agree to dump Maastricht Criteria to rub Russia’s nose?